by Burk Foster
(March 1996)
Originally appeared in The Angolite, March/April 1996, pp. 36-37.
Louisiana's people and political officials are always looking for new way to reduce our nation-leading homicide rate. We have the toughest homicide laws in the country, giving a few convicted murderers death sentences and punishing the rest with natural life sentences, which has done wonders to build up our prison population but still left us leading the country in the murder rate the last five years. Maybe there is something simple we could do to lower our rate, a least to the level of the other Southern states.
Table 1 shows homicides in Louisiana over the 20 years from 1973 to
1993. The table is broken down into four parts:
1. The number of homicides occurring statewide,
and the rate per 100,000. These homicide figures are based on statistics
compiled by the Office of Public Health. They are more accurate and also
higher--because they include negligent homicides and innocent homicides,
such as self-defense killings--than the FBI estimates of murder and manslaughter
that appear in the Uniform Crime Reports.
2. The number of homicides occurring in Orleans
Parish, the rate, and the percentage of homicides in Louisiana occurring
in just this one parish.
3. The number of homicides occurring in the rest
of the state, outside Orleans Parish, and the rate.
4. For reference, the national homicide rate for
each year, based on estimates in the Uniform Crime Reports.
The table shows that the homicide rate in Louisiana was fairly stable for the decade from 1973 to 1983, went down for about five years, then in 1989 began climbing toward new heights. The rate for 1993, 21.3, is not only the highest for any year but it is also the highest for any American state in the history of modern homicide statistics.
How did the murder rate get so high? We cannot definitively consider why it got so high, in a short article, but we can see where it got so high: Orleans Parish. Although the population of New Orleans has declined steadily, by about 20% since 1960, the number of homicides continues to increase, more than doubling from the mid-1970s to the early 1990s. By 1993, New Orleans's population was down to 489,000, only about 12.7% of the state total, but its homicides accounted for 42% of the state total.
While the homicide rate in New Orleans has doubled in 20 years, the homicide rate for the rest of the state has remained static. It went slowly down, for a time, bottoming out in the latter 1980s, but has come back up again since. The rest of the state, 63 parishes containing 88% of the people, are almost exactly where we were 20 years ago. New Orleans has taken a dramatic turn for the worse.
Why does this distinction matter? Legislators pass laws to reflect their perceptions, and their constituents' perceptions, of statewide concerns. The murder rate statewide, while still nothing to be proud of, is not out-of-line with for a time, bottoming out in the latter 1980s, but has come back up again since. The rest of the state, 63 parishes containing 88% of the people, are almost exactly where we were 20 years ago. New Orleans has taken a dramatic turn for the worse.
Why does this distinction matter? Legislators pass laws to reflect their perceptions, and their constituents' perceptions, of Statewide concerns. The murder rate statewide, while still nothing to be proud of, is not out-of-line with other Southern states. Only when New Orleans is added to the pool do the numbers climb to the top of the charts. The rest of Louisiana, including the other metropolitan areas of Baton Rouge, Shreveport, Metairie, Lafayette, Alexandria, Monroe, and Houma, has a "typical" Southern murder rate. It is New Orleans's rate that makes the rest of the state look bad.
To dramatically lower Louisiana's murder rate, the legislature ought to first expel New Orleans. Then, after noticing how much safer we are, our political officials and our people would be obliged to quit blaming the rest of the state for the crimes of New Orleans, and we could stop severely punishing criminals in the rest of the state because we are afraid of the criminals of New Orleans.
Table 1
Homicides in Louisiana, 1973-1993
Homicides
in Louisiana
Orleans Parish
Homicides
Rate
Percent of
w/o Orleans
Year Number (per 100,000)
No. State Total Rate
No. Rate
U.S. Rate
1973 648
17.2
227 (35.0%) 39.1
421 13.1
9.4
1974 659
17.5
219 (33.2%) 38.4
440 13.5
9.8
1975 582
15.4
183 (31.4%) 32.2
399 12.0
9.6
1976 551
14.3
183 (33.2%) 32.2
368 10.9
8.8
1977 631
16.1
181 (28.7%) 32.1
450 13.0
8.8
1978 669
16.9
217 (32.4%) 38.7
452 12.9
9.0
1979 718
17.9
272 (37.9%) 48.8
446 12.5
9.7
1980 666
15.9
237 (35.6%) 42.5
429 11.7
10.2
1981 712
16.5
246 (34.6%) 43.9
466 12.5
9.8
1982 733
16.8
257 (35.1%) 45.6
476 12.6
9.1
1983 672
15.1
233 (34.8%) 41.1
439 11.5
8.3
1984 597
13.4
222 (37.2%) 39.2
375 9.8
7.9
1985 525
11.7
167 (31.8%) 29.6
358 9.3
7.9
1986 622
13.8
219 (35.2%) 38.8
403 10.5
8.6
1987 570
12.8
221 (38.8%) 39.7
349 9.2
8.3
1988 583
13.2
245 (42.0%) 44.9
338 9.0
8.4
1989 685
15.6
270 (39.4%) 50.6
415 11.2
8.7
1990 753
17.8
312 (41.4%) 62.8
441 11.8
9.4
1991 824
19.4
348 (42.2%) 70.0
476 12.7
9.8
1992 786
18.3
288 (36.6%) 58.2
498 13.1
9.3
1993 914
21.3
385 (42.1%) 78.7
529 13.8
9.5
Sources:
Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals, Office
of Public Health, Public Health Statistics
U.S. Bureau of the Census
Uniform Crime Reports
Research Division, College of Administration and
Business, Louisiana Tech University